The odds are mighty steep, but it happened

By Brownwyn Gerretsen

The chances of 18 people winning last Saturday's lottery jackpot of more than R21-million are highly improbable, according to mathematics and statistics experts.

For, as far as the statistics go, for 18 people to have selected the six winning numbers, a total of 252-million tickets would have to have been sold to fit with the odds.

The odds of one person winning the Lotto are 1 in just under 14-million.

And in Saturday's draw, there were only about 7.5-million entries.

But the experts also point out that, when dealing with statistics, nothing is impossible.

"The question we need to ask however, is how probable is it?" said William Smith, a well-known maths and science television educator.

"If 17 tickets were sold and there were 18 winners, that is impossible.

"But if only 18 tickets were sold, and all 18 people chose the same numbers and those numbers were the winning numbers, then that is improbable. The chances of it are very remote."

Smith said that following the Lotto draw, a few people had questioned him regarding the odds of 18 people winning, but he would not say what he thought for fear of getting sued.

But while Thembi Tulwana, spokesperson for Gidani, the lottery operator, agreed that the odds of 18 winners was very small, she said it was definitely not zero.

"The history of the lottery tells us that even lower odds than this can be achieved. We have received mixed reactions regarding the 18 winners. Some people are excited about the occurrence and some are sceptical," she said.

The highest number of winners for one jackpot was 33 in March 2003.

Of the 18 winners last weekend, who each walked away with R1 216 584, two had taken Quickpick tickets while the other 16 had selected their own numbers.

Four of the winners, all from Gauteng, have still not claimed their prize.

• This article was originally published on page 2 of The Star on February 14, 2009